The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver Review

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don’t by Nate Silver (FiveThirtyEight.com) is an incredibly fascinating look at modern and historical predictions delving into why some fail and others don’t. My favorite chapters explain how weather predictions are made and even compares the accuracy of predictions made by different weather groups (Accuweather vs NOAA vs Local Weather). Spoiler Alert: NOAA is the most accurate. He has many other fascinating chapters involving how he accurately predicted the last two presidential elections as well as explains how the attack on Pearl Harbor was a surprise but shouldn’t have been. This book is for more than just math nerds and stat geeks. I recommend this book for everyone.

– Tim Ferro